Economic Growth Forecasts for India: 2023-2025
Various financial institutions have revised India’s growth forecasts. Goldman Sachs increased the 2023 projection to 6.7% but maintained 2024 at 6.2%. Morgan Stanley raised the FY 2024 estimate to 6.9%, while Citi cited investment for a 6.7% forecast. SBI Research and DBS see growth, and IDFC First Bank upgraded its GDP forecast to 6.7%. Bank of Baroda anticipates FY24 growth, citing government support and festive boosts.
Goldman Sachs has raised India’s growth forecast for the calendar year 2023 by 20 basis points, now standing at an impressive 6.7% year-on-year. However, their optimism is cautious as the 2024 forecast remains unchanged at 6.2%.
Morgan Stanley takes a bullish stance, revising the financial year 2024 growth forecast upwards to 6.9% from the previous 6.4%. While optimism prevails, the forecast for the financial year 2025 remains steady at 6.5%.
Citi attributes the boost in the financial year 2024 GDP forecast, now at 6.7% (an increase of 50 basis points), to a notable pick-up in investment activity. This underscores the significance of economic drivers in shaping growth trajectories.
Axis Capital joins the positive chorus, raising its estimates to 6.7% with identified upside risks. In contrast, Nuvama Institutional Equities maintains a conservative stance, retaining the GDP growth forecast at 6.5%, showcasing the diversity of opinions among financial institutions.
State Bank of India (SBI) Research and DBS both anticipate robust growth. SBI Research has revised its GDP forecast for fiscal 2023-24 to approximately 7%, demonstrating confidence in India’s economic momentum. Meanwhile, DBS now envisions growth in the current financial year at 6.8%, up from the earlier projection of 6.4%.
IDFC First Bank joins the upward revision trend, boosting its India GDP forecast for the full fiscal year to 6.7% from the previous 6.2%. This adjustment signals a shared optimism among financial institutions regarding India’s economic performance.
Bank of Baroda Economist Jahnavi Prabhakar emphasizes the role of government spending and a delayed festive season in supporting growth. Anticipating a higher growth for FY24, the bank introduces an upward bias of 0.1-0.2%, underlining the multifaceted factors influencing India’s economic trajectory.
Q: What is Goldman Sachs’ revised growth forecast for India in 2023, and how does it compare to the forecast for 2024?
A: Goldman Sachs has increased India’s 2023 growth forecast to 6.7% year-on-year, a 20 basis point hike. However, they maintained the 2024 forecast at 6.2%.
Q: What factors does Citi attribute to the increase in their financial year 2024 GDP forecast for India?
A: Citi attributes the 50 basis point increase in its financial year 2024 GDP forecast (now at 6.7%) to a notable pick-up in investment activity.
Q: How does Morgan Stanley’s outlook for the financial year 2024 differ from its previous projection, and what about the financial year 2025?
A: Morgan Stanley has revised its financial year 2024 growth forecast upward to 6.9% from 6.4%. The forecast for the financial year 2025 remains steady at 6.5%.
Q: What is the stance of Nuvama Institutional Equities regarding India’s GDP growth, and how does it differ from Axis Capital?
A: Nuvama Institutional Equities has retained the GDP growth forecast at 6.5%, while Axis Capital raised its estimates to 6.7% with identified upside risks, showcasing diverse perspectives.
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