El Niño 2026 May Intensify, WMO Warns of Impacts

World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has come out with a new and important update on El Niño. This time around, the WMO is predicting close to a 100 percent chance of the climate phenomenon continuing up until February 2027. Extremely high temperatures in the tropical Pacific region indicate a strong El Niño event, which may intensify in the coming days and may even become extremely intense towards the end of 2026. This development is important for India and many other nations as it can influence rainfall and temperatures, leading to more weather extremes.

WMO Predicts El Niño Until February 2027

As per the latest update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), there is a near-100 percent chance of El Niño continuing through February 2027.

The organisation mentioned that this development is being driven by warm ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific region. Current trends point to a continuation and strengthening of the phenomenon into the next few months, and the peak of the phenomenon is expected towards the end of 2026.

WMO and National Met Services Have Called For Early Warning Systems To Mitigate Potential Impacts Of The Climate Phenomenon.

El Niño Characteristics Observed in the Pacific Ocean

The equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean region, considered to be the major El Niño region, is experiencing warm anomalies relative to its normal conditions.

The Niño 3.4 index, one of the commonly used indices for detecting El Niño events, increased from an average value of +1.5°C between May and July 2026 to +2.0°C in July.

The weekly values have continued to increase, with the latest values being in the range of +2.2°C to +2.6°C above normal between late July and mid-August.

Anomalously warm conditions are even more pronounced beneath the surface layer of the Pacific Ocean. There have been reported temperatures in excess of 8°C above average in parts of the region during July and early August.

What Does El Niño Mean for India?

El Niño is one of the most powerful natural climate drivers affecting the world’s climate system. In India, it generally means below-normal monsoon rainfall and warmer conditions, though the effect may vary based on other atmospheric and oceanic parameters.

That makes a powerful El Niño potentially an additional problem to cope with for the agricultural, water resource, and heating management sectors, in case of impacts on the seasonal rainfall and temperature regime of the country.

Yet, one more climate parameter may somewhat reduce its impact.

Positive IOD Might Bring Relief

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also supposed to move into the positive phase, with a September-October-November 2026 seasonal mean forecasted at about +0.9°C.

Positive IOD will be able to compensate for some negative rainfall impacts brought by the El Niño over the Indian subcontinent region.

Nonetheless, it won’t solve all problems connected with the powerful El Niño event.