GDP expected to grow 6-6.5 per cent in FY24: BoB Eco Research

According to the economic research department (ERD) of Bank of Baroda, India’s GDP is anticipated to experience growth ranging from 6% to 6.5% in FY24. This growth is expected to be driven by a robust performance in the agriculture sector, a recovery in industrial growth, and the services sector demonstrating resilience. However, there are also downside risks, including geopolitical tensions and slowing external demand.

RBI Projects 6.4% Growth for FY24

Governor Shaktikanta Das of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a real GDP growth rate of 6.4% for FY24. He cited increased rabi output, which enhances prospects for agriculture and rural demand. Additionally, the sustained recovery of contact-intensive sectors is expected to support urban consumption. Das also highlighted broad-based credit growth, improved capacity utilization, and the government’s focus on capital spending and infrastructure as factors that will bolster investment activity.

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CARE Ratings Forecasts 6.1% GDP Growth in FY24

CARE Ratings, a credit rating agency, estimates India’s economic growth for FY24 to be 6.1%. The agency emphasizes the government’s emphasis on capital expenditure (capex) and the growing intent of the private sector to invest, which should support investment demand. However, lower external demand and rising interest rates pose risks to investment revival. For FY23, CARE Ratings projects GDP growth at 7%, taking into account improving rural demand, rising rural wages, and the need for domestic demand to accelerate.

Moody’s Predicts 6.5% Growth for 2024

Moody’s Investors Service, a global credit rating agency, forecasts India’s growth rate to be 6.5% for 2024 and 5.5% for 2023. Moody’s attributes the primary drivers of economic growth in these years to the decisions made by central banks regarding interest rates. They expect global economic growth to slow in 2023 due to cumulative monetary policy tightening. Moody’s forecasts a gradual improvement in G20 global economic growth, from 2.0% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024.

Acuite Ratings & Research’s Outlook

Acuite Ratings & Research predicts that India’s economic growth for FY23 will be around 7.0%. Looking ahead to FY24, they consider factors such as the impact of higher interest rates on urban demand, stability of the monsoon, and absence of base factors. For now, Acuite Ratings & Research maintains a GDP growth forecast of 6% for FY24, without factoring in additional risks from monsoons and external factors.

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