India’s Business Confidence Index Rises to 149.4 in April–June

The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has reported a sharp rise in India’s Business Confidence Index (BCI), which surged to 149.4 in the April–June quarter of 2024–25 from 139.3 in the previous quarter. This boost in confidence is driven by positive expectations across all major economic indicators, signaling strong optimism among Indian businesses for the months ahead.

What is Driving the Surge?

The NCAER’s Business Expectations Survey bases its BCI on four core components, Expectation of improved overall economic conditions in the next six months. Anticipation of better financial positions for firms. Assessment of the present investment climate. Capacity utilisation levels being close to or above optimal. The latest survey reveals that over 60% of respondents gave positive responses across all four parameters, reflecting broad-based optimism.

Production, Sales, and Exports Set to Rise

A large majority of firms expect strong business performance in the coming months,

• 78.7% expect production to increase.
• 79.1% anticipate higher domestic sales.
• 66.5% are optimistic about export growth.
• 54.3% foresee a rise in raw material imports, up from 46.1% in the previous quarter, indicating upcoming expansion in production activities.
• Nearly 61% of firms expect pre-tax profits to rise, suggesting that businesses foresee better margins in the near term.

Labour Market Remains Flat

Despite the buoyancy in production and sales expectations, the optimism has not translated into job creation or wage growth. The survey found no significant change in hiring sentiment, and wage expectations remain unchanged for the next six months. This suggests that companies are focusing on output growth while holding back on expanding their workforce.

Survey Scope and Coverage

The quarterly survey was conducted in June 2025, covering 479 companies across six major Indian cities. It represents a diverse cross-section of industries, offering a comprehensive snapshot of India’s current business sentiment.

Outlook for the Next Six Months

With production and sales expectations soaring, the Indian business landscape is set for robust growth in the near term. However, the stagnation in hiring and wages signals that the benefits of this optimism may take longer to filter into the labour market.

If the current momentum holds, India could see stronger investment flows, export growth, and enhanced capacity utilisation—all crucial for sustaining economic expansion in 2025.