India's GDP to Reach $5.7 Trillion, Becoming Third Largest by 2028: Morgan Stanley
According to Morgan Stanley, India’s GDP is projected to expand to $5.7 trillion by fiscal 2028, making it the third-largest economy in the world, surpassing Germany and Japan. Currently the fifth-largest economy, India is expected to overtake Japan by 2026 to become the fourth-largest. The country’s share in global GDP is set to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2029, driven by strong macroeconomic policies, improved infrastructure, and a growing consumer market. The report also outlines different growth scenarios, with GDP potentially reaching $10.3 trillion by 2035 in a bullish case.
Summary/Static | Details |
Why in the news? | India’s GDP to Reach $5.7 Trillion, Becoming Third Largest by 2028: Morgan Stanley |
India’s GDP in 2023 | $3.5 trillion |
Projected GDP (2026) | $4.7 trillion (4th largest, overtaking Japan) |
Projected GDP (2028) | $5.7 trillion (3rd largest, overtaking Germany) |
Global GDP Share (2029) | 4.5% (up from 3.5%) |
Projected GDP (2035) | $6.6T (Bear), $8.8T (Base), $10.3T (Bull) |
Per Capita GDP (2025) | $2,514 |
Per Capita GDP (2035) | $4,247 (Bear), $5,683 (Base), $6,706 (Bull) |
Middle-Income Threshold | $10,000 (India still below this in 2035) |
Short-Term Growth (FY 2025-26) | 6.3% (2025), 6.5% (2026) |
Factors Driving Growth | Policy stability, infrastructure, entrepreneurship, manufacturing, energy transition |
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