India’s Population to Peak at 1.7 Billion by 2060s Before Declining: UN Report

India’s population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before declining by 12%, as predicted by the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024 report. Despite the decline, India will remain the world’s most populous country throughout the 21st century.

Key Findings

Population Peak and Decline

India’s population, currently estimated at 1.45 billion, is expected to increase to 1.69 billion by 2054, peaking at about 1.7 billion in the early 2060s. A decline of 12% is projected, bringing the population to around 1.5 billion by 2100.

Global Ranking

India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year and will retain this status throughout the century. By the end of the century, India’s population will still significantly exceed that of any other country.

China’s Population Decline

China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion, is projected to decline to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100 due to a low fertility rate of around one birth per woman.

Global Trends

The global population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2 billion by 2100. Many countries will experience population declines due to low fertility rates.

United States and Pakistan

The United States, currently the third most populous country, will be surpassed by Pakistan by 2054.

Aging Population

By the late 2070s, the number of persons aged 65 and older will surpass the number of children under 18. By the mid-2030s, the number of persons aged 80 and older will exceed the number of infants under age 1.

Social Implications

Early Pregnancies

Early pregnancies, particularly in low-income countries, pose significant health risks. In 2024, 4.7 million babies were born to mothers under 18, with 340,000 of these to children under 15.

Education and Health Investments

Investing in the education of young people, especially girls, and delaying marriage and first childbirth will positively impact women’s health, educational attainment, and labor force participation. These efforts are crucial for sustainable development and population growth management.