Moody’s cuts India’s economic growth forecast to 8.8% for 2022

Moody’s Investors Service slashed India’s economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody’s said high-frequency data suggest that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead. Rate hikes to prevent energy and food inflation from becoming more generalized will slow the demand recovery’s momentum.

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Strong credit growth, a large increase in investment intentions announced by the corporate sector, and a high budget allocation to capital spending by the government indicate that the investment cycle is strengthening. For 2022 and 2023, it projected inflation to be around 6.8 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively.

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