Editorial 1: The ‘geo-calculus’ of the Moscow visit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Russia, his first bilateral trip in his third term, has sparked considerable debate in the international community. The evident camaraderie between Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn criticism from Ukraine and expressions of disappointment from the United States. While New Delhi has emphasized its “freedom of choice,” this visit signifies more than just a routine diplomatic engagement. The implications of this visit extend beyond formal outcomes, highlighting significant shifts in India’s foreign policy and strategic calculations.

Assessment of the Conflict in Ukraine

• Timing and Context: The timing of Modi’s visit, two years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is crucial. Modi had avoided traveling to Russia during the initial years of the conflict, opting instead for cautious diplomacy. His visit now suggests a reevaluation of the situation, indicating that New Delhi perceives a stabilization in the conflict dynamics. Russia, despite early setbacks, appears to have consolidated its position in eastern Ukraine, and the conflict has entered a phase where a frozen status quo seems likely.
• New Delhi’s Perspective: India’s stance on the Ukraine conflict has been marked by strategic abstentions at the United Nations, including the recent vote calling for a ceasefire. This approach reflects India’s broader strategic interests, balancing its relationships with both Russia and the West. Modi’s visit to Moscow, following the exclusion of the annual India-Russia summits in 2022 and 2023, underscores a recalibration of ties, recognizing Russia’s resilience and the improbability of a swift resolution to the conflict.

Geopolitical Significance

• Balancing Relations: Modi’s decision to visit Russia, especially after canceling his visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Kazakhstan, sends a clear geopolitical message. By prioritizing a meeting with Putin over a joint appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Modi highlights India’s strategic autonomy. This move contrasts with Western pressures on China to reduce support for Russia, positioning India as an independent actor in the global arena.
• Strategic Autonomy: India’s visit to Russia reaffirms its strategic autonomy, asserting its ability to navigate complex international relations independently. Despite its partnerships with Western countries in the Indo-Pacific, India remains committed to maintaining a robust relationship with Russia. This approach is essential given the ongoing tensions with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Geo-Economic Implications

• Economic Ties: The economic dimension of Modi’s visit is significant, particularly in the context of Western sanctions on Russia. India’s imports of discounted Russian oil have surged, resulting in a dramatic increase in bilateral trade. Modi and Putin’s discussions included strategies to circumvent these sanctions, focusing on energy supplies and mutual investments. The joint vision statement on trade by 2030 outlines specific action items aimed at strengthening economic ties and addressing trade imbalances.
• Strategic Investments: The Modi-Putin summit also emphasized cooperation in Russia’s Far East, enhancing energy supplies and exploring new connectivity routes such as the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor. These initiatives aim to bolster trade and investment flows, ensuring long-term economic collaboration despite geopolitical challenges.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia marks a pivotal moment in India’s foreign policy, reflecting a nuanced approach to global diplomacy. By reaffirming its strategic partnership with Russia, India underscores its commitment to maintaining a balanced and independent foreign policy. The visit highlights India’s recognition of Russia’s resilience in the Ukraine conflict and its strategic importance in India’s geopolitical calculations. While challenges remain, the enduring message from Modi’s visit is India’s solid bet on the strength and significance of its ties with Russia, navigating the complexities of a multipolar world with a clear vision for the future.