Global Grain Price Outlook for 2024: Decline Expected, Rice a Standout Exception

The World Bank and research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, have jointly forecasted a 6.5% decline in global grain prices in 2024. However, rice is expected to be an exception due to India’s export restrictions and concerns related to El Nino.

Factors Influencing Decline

The World Bank Commodity Outlook suggests that the overall decrease in grain prices will be driven by the anticipated improvement in global grain supplies. Despite higher rice prices, the continued decline in maize and wheat prices is expected to balance the overall trend.

Specific Projections

• CBOT-listed second-month corn prices are projected to decline by 9.9% year-on-year in 2024.
• Soybean prices are expected to decrease by 3.9% year-on-year during the same period.
• Wheat futures are forecasted to see a 5.7% year-on-year decline in 2024.

Rice as an Exception

Rice prices may deviate from the general trend due to India’s export curbs and concerns surrounding the impact of El Nino. The report suggests that these factors could contribute to higher rice prices even as other grain prices decline.

Weighted Average Impact

When considering an even-weighted basis for the three major crops (corn, soybean, and wheat), the overall decline in global grain prices is estimated at 6.5% year-on-year for 2024.

Important Questions Related to Exams

Q: What is the outlook for global grain prices in 2024?

A: The World Bank and BMI (Fitch Solutions) predict a 6.5% decline, except for rice due to Indian export restrictions and El Nino concerns.

Q: How will rice prices behave in 2024?

A: Rice prices are expected to rise, offsetting the overall decline, primarily driven by Indian export curbs and El Nino’s potential impact.

Q: What factors contribute to the overall grain price trend?

A: The World Bank Commodity Outlook cites improved global grain supplies, leading to a continued decline in maize and wheat prices, balancing the higher rice prices.

Q: Any specific projections for individual crops?

A: Yes, CBOT-listed second-month corn, soybean, and wheat futures are expected to decline by 9.9%, 3.9%, and 5.7% YoY in 2024, respectively.

Q: What’s the overall percentage decline when considering the three crops together?

A: When evenly weighted, the three crops are projected to decline by 6.5% YoY in 2024.

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