India Cuts Ties with Pakistan: Treaty Ended, Borders Sealed, Diplomats Expelled

India has taken an unprecedented step by terminating the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, a move that signifies the most serious breakdown in diplomatic relations between the two nations in recent years. Alongside the treaty’s termination, the Atari-Wagah border has been sealed, visa services for Pakistani citizens suspended, and defence advisors from both countries have been withdrawn. These actions reflect a decisive strategic shift in India’s foreign policy approach toward its western neighbour.

Background: The Indus Water Treaty and Its Importance

Signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, the Indus Water Treaty was one of the longest-standing agreements between India and Pakistan, surviving multiple wars and political upheavals. The treaty allocated the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan, with detailed mechanisms for dispute resolution and cooperation.

Its abrogation is historically significant, as it dismantles a key confidence-building mechanism between the two countries and removes an internationally recognized symbol of cooperative water management in a conflict-prone region.

Why Now? Strategic and Security Context

The current actions by India follow a steady deterioration in India-Pakistan relations, marked by repeated cross-border terror incidents, infiltration attempts, and diplomatic hostilities. The decision to terminate the treaty and sever key diplomatic and military communication channels appears to be part of a broader strategic recalibration.

In geopolitical terms, the move may be interpreted as India’s assertion of hydro-sovereignty and a message that existing frameworks of engagement are untenable unless rooted in mutual respect and responsibility.

Closure of Border and Visa Suspension: Implications

The closure of the Atari-Wagah border ends overland civilian and trade transit, impacting not only diplomatic ties but also people-to-people contact, cultural exchanges, and limited trade relations. Coupled with the suspension of all visa categories for Pakistani nationals, this step effectively freezes civilian-level engagement.

From a policy standpoint, this indicates India’s decision to use non-military, coercive diplomacy in response to continued threats and provocations.

Military and Defence Diplomacy Withdrawn

By expelling Pakistani Defence, Naval, and Air advisors and simultaneously withdrawing its own counterparts from Islamabad, India has completely shut down the military diplomatic channel, which traditionally served as a crucial mechanism during crises and ceasefire negotiations.

The removal of these advisors suggests a diplomatic hardening, where dialogue is no longer prioritized under hostile circumstances, and security concerns have been placed at the forefront.

Implications for India, Pakistan, and the Region

1. Strategic Autonomy in Water Management

India’s withdrawal from the IWT signals a move toward reasserting full control over its share of the Indus basin, potentially accelerating dam construction and water diversion projects in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

2. Pakistan’s Vulnerability

With the western rivers being critical to Pakistan’s agricultural economy, the end of the treaty could create significant water insecurity, particularly in provinces like Punjab and Sindh.

3. Global and Regional Reaction

This step is likely to draw international attention, especially from stakeholders like China, the World Bank, and the United Nations, while also affecting regional water diplomacy in South Asia.

4. Impact on South Asian Stability

Diplomatic disengagement at this scale may reduce chances of peaceful dialogue and increase the potential for miscommunication or escalation, especially given the volatile borders and history of armed conflict.