Moody’s expects India to report real GDP growth of 5.5 percent in 2023

Moody’s now expects India’s real GDP growth to be 5.5% in 2023, up from the earlier projection of 5%, and to be 6.5% in 2024. The upward revisions for India also incorporate a significant increase in capital expenditure budget allocation to ₹10 lakh crore (3.3% of GDP) for fiscal year 2023-24, up from ₹7.5 lakh crore for the fiscal year ending in March 2023.

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Key point of the outlook

• Moody’s has published its macro-outlook for G20 economies and has made upward revisions to its 2023 growth forecasts for the US, the euro area and China. Additionally, the credit rating agency has raised growth projections for India, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.
• Moody’s noted that economic momentum in several large emerging market countries, including India, Brazil, Mexico and Türkiye, had proved more resilient to last year’s tightening in the global and domestic financial environment than it had anticipated.
• For G-20 economies, Moody’s sees growth moderating to 2 percent this year from 2.7 percent in 2022, and then to improve to 2.4 percent in 2024. For the G-20 advanced economies, the 2022 growth estimate is now 2.3 percent against the earlier expectation of 2.1 percent.
• G-20 advanced economies are expected to report a growth of 0.8 percent this year, exceeding the previous estimate of 0.2 percent. The rating agency also sees real GDP growth to accelerate from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.9 percent in 2023, up 0.8 percentage point from its November forecasts.

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