RBI Projects Further Moderation in Bank NPAs to 2.5%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a further improvement in the gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), estimating it to decrease to 2.5% by March 2025. This optimistic outlook is based on macro stress tests evaluating banks’ resilience against potential economic shocks.

Sustained Improvement in Asset Quality

As of March 2024, SCBs reported a 12-year low in their GNPA ratio at 2.8%, alongside a record low net NPA ratio of 0.6%. This improvement reflects a consistent decline in new NPA additions and increased provisioning by public sector banks (PSBs) and foreign banks (FBs).

Stress Test Scenarios

Under the baseline scenario, SCBs are expected to maintain resilience with minimal impact on capital adequacy ratios. However, in severe stress scenarios, the GNPA ratio could rise to 3.4% by March 2025, with PSBs potentially seeing a higher increase to 4.1%.

Capital and Risk Resilience

Despite potential economic challenges, SCBs remain well-capitalized, with aggregate capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) projected above regulatory norms. The common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio is expected to remain comfortably above the minimum requirement, ensuring stability even under adverse conditions.