Syria’s Aleppo Slips from Government Hands, Says Monitor

Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, has fallen from government control for the first time since the conflict began over a decade ago. This shift comes after a surprise offensive by Islamist-dominated rebel groups, with support from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions. The city’s loss marks a significant turning point in the Syrian conflict, as it had previously been recaptured by government forces in 2016.

Key Points

• Aleppo Falls: Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, has slipped out of the Syrian government’s control for the first time since the start of the civil war in 2011.
• Rebel Offensive: The loss follows a sudden offensive by rebel groups, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who control much of northern Syria, including Aleppo’s airport and several towns.
• Role of External Powers: The Syrian government’s forces have received substantial backing from Russian air power and Hezbollah, but their strength has been waning due to losses in other regions.
• Kurdish Control: Parts of Aleppo, specifically northern districts, are still under Kurdish control, led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a US-backed militia.
• Casualties: More than 370 people have died due to the fighting, including at least 48 civilians, with the situation exacerbated by Russian air strikes.
• Rebel’s Strategic Goals: The rebel alliance sees the offensive as part of a broader shift in regional power dynamics, including the weakening of Iranian influence in the region.

Implications of the Fall of Aleppo

• Impact on Government Control: Aleppo’s fall indicates the vulnerability of the Syrian government’s hold on key territories.
• Regional Tensions: The shift in control has wider implications for the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, with multiple external players involved in the ongoing struggle for influence.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The continued fighting, particularly in urban areas like Aleppo, exacerbates the humanitarian situation, with civilian casualties and displacement on the rise.
• Weakness of the Syrian Regime: The rebel advance, with little resistance from government forces, signals a significant weakening of the regime’s control over large swaths of the country.