S&P Global Ratings, a major credit rating agency, anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might reduce interest rates in the fiscal year 2024-25, contingent on the containment of food inflation and the performance of the monsoon.
Concerns about the extended free food grain scheme and the possibility of additional government initiatives, especially in the run-up to general elections, may raise concerns about India’s fiscal health. However, Andrew Wood, the rating firm’s sovereign ratings director, suggests that these initiatives are unlikely to have a significant impact on India’s medium-term finances.
Wood asserts that the government is likely to adhere closely to its fiscal deficit targets and glide path through fiscal year 2026, even with the extended food scheme. This is possible due to budget adjustments and calibrations throughout the year and the gradual nature of the fiscal consolidation targets. Additionally, strong revenue growth is expected to persist in the coming years.
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