CRISIL forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6% for next FY against NSO’s projection of 7%

CRISIL expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to touch 6% in fiscal 2024, compared with 7% estimated by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for fiscal 2023.

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Why the India’s GDP Growth On a Downturn:

A complex interplay of geopolitical events, stubbornly high inflation — and sharp rate hikes to counter that — have turned the global environment gloomier.

On the domestic front, the peak impact of the rate hikes — 250 basis points since May 2022, which has pushed interest rates above pre-Covid-19 levels — will play out in fiscal 2024.

Inflation Expectation By the CRISIL:

Consumer inflation is expected to moderate to 5.0% on average in fiscal 2024 from 6.8% in fiscal 2023, owing to high-base effect and some softening of crude and commodity prices. A good rabi harvest would help cool food inflation, while the slowing economy should moderate core inflation.

The risks to inflation are tilted upward, given the ongoing heat wave and the World Meteorological Organization’s prediction that an El Niño warming event is likely over the next couple of months.

Exports Growth Prediction:

Merchandise exports are expected to grow a moderate 2-4% in fiscal 2024 after an estimated 5-7% increase in fiscal 2023, with the PLI scheme supporting demand owing to global supply chain diversification and ‘friend-shoring’ strategies.

India’s GDP growth forecast by various financial organizations:

NSO GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.9%
NSO stands for National Statistical Office

Fitch GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.4%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 7%

RBI GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.5%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6.3%

Moody GDP forecast for India

• For calendar year 2022 ➥ 8.8%
• For calendar year 2023 ➥ 5.4%

ADB GDP forecast for India

• FY23 (2022-23) ➥7%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 8%
• ADB stands for Asian Development Bank

World Bank GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.3%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 6.5%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6.8%

IMF GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.4%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6.9%

FICCI GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.1%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.4%

OECD GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.4%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 6.9%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 5.5%

Goldman Sachs GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.1%

CRISIL GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.5%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.3%

UN (United Nations) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 4.6%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 6.4%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6%

CII (Confederation of Indian Industry) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.5%

India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.6%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7-7.2%

Economy Survey GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 11%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 8-8.5%

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 9.5%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.3%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6.5%

ICRA (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.5%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.2%

SBI (State Bank of India) GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2022-23) ➥ 6.8%

Morgan Stanley GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 10.5%
• FY23 (2022-23) ➥ 7.2%
• FY24 (2023-24) ➥ 6.7%

CARE Rating GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 8.8 to 9%

Nomura GDP forecast for India

• FY22 (2021-22) ➥ 10.8%
• FY22 (2022-23) ➥ 4.7%

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