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China slows, India grows: S&P Global Ratings Forecasts India’s Robust Growth, Predicts Shift in Asia-Pacific Dynamics

In a recent report titled ‘China Slows India Grows,’ S&P Global Ratings anticipates a significant shift in the economic landscape of the Asia-Pacific region. The report projects India’s GDP growth to outpace China’s, highlighting a forecasted 7% growth for India by 2026, in contrast to China’s estimated 4.6%.

Growth Projections

  1. India’s Ascendance: S&P predicts India’s GDP to expand at 6.4% in the current fiscal year and the next, with a notable surge to 6.9% in 2025 and a robust 7% in 2026. This optimistic outlook positions India as a key driver of growth in the region.

  2. China’s Deceleration: In contrast, China’s growth trajectory is expected to moderate, with a projected GDP growth of 4.6% in 2024, a slight uptick to 4.8% in 2025, and a return to 4.6% in 2026. The report signifies a significant deceleration in the Chinese economy.
  3. Shift in Growth Engine: S&P envisions a transition in the Asia-Pacific’s growth engine, shifting from China to South and Southeast Asia. Vietnam is expected to achieve a growth rate of 6.8%, the Philippines at 6.4%, and Indonesia maintaining a steady 5%.

Economic Challenges

  1. Impact of High Interest Rates: S&P notes that Asia-Pacific’s central banks are likely to maintain high-interest rates, leading to increased debt-servicing costs for the region’s borrowers.

  2. Global Supply Chain Disruptions: The report warns of a potential widening conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt global supply chains and elevate energy costs. Such disruptions pose a risk of inflation, impacting corporate margins and weakening overall demand.
  3. Energy and Demand Shock Risk: S&P identifies the susceptibility of Asia-Pacific’s growth to energy shocks, particularly with the escalating Middle East conflict. Additionally, the risk of a U.S. hard landing leading to slower global demand is highlighted.

Adjusted Growth Projection

S&P has revised its projection for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) in 2024, lowering it from 4.4% to 4.2%. This adjustment reflects the potential challenges posed by high-interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic uncertainties.

Industry Variances

S&P emphasizes the differing prospects for industries, with export-centric manufacturing expected to face greater challenges in the evolving economic landscape.

Questions Related to Exams

Q: What does S&P Global Ratings project for India’s GDP growth compared to China?

A: S&P forecasts India’s GDP to reach 7% by 2026, surpassing China’s expected growth of 4.6% during the same period.

Q: How does S&P anticipate the regional economic dynamics in the Asia-Pacific?

A: The report, titled ‘China Slows, India Grows,’ suggests a shift in the growth engine from China to South and Southeast Asia.

Q: What are the near-term projections for India’s economic performance according to S&P? A: S&P projects India’s GDP to expand at 6.4% in the current fiscal year and the next, with further growth expected to reach 6.9% in 2025 and 7% in 2026.

Q: How has S&P adjusted its growth projection for the Asia-Pacific region?

A: S&P revised its growth projection for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) in 2024 from 4.4% to 4.2%, considering the potential economic uncertainties.

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