Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled India’s annual pre-budget economic survey 2023 in Parliament. The Economic Survey has pegged India’s GDP growth at 6-6.8% for FY2024 under the baseline scenario. This would be the slowest in three years. Nominal growth is likely to be projected at 11% for 2023-24. Last year’s survey predicted India’s economy to grow at 8-8.5% in FY23.
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Economic Survey 2023: India to remain fastest growing economy:
India to remain fastest-growing major economy in the world. 6.8% inflation for current fiscal not high enough to deter private consumption or low enough to weaken investment. Borrowing cost may remain ‘higher’ for longer period; entrenched inflation may prolong tightening cycle, says Economic Survey.
Economic Survey 2023: FY23 growth pegged at 7%:
FM Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey 2023 in Parliament. The Survey has pegged GDP growth for current financial year at 7%.
Economic Survey 2023: FY24 GDP growth seen at 6-6.8%:
India’s FY24 GDP growth is seen at 6-6.8%. Baseline Nominal GDP growth is pegged at 11%.
Economic Survey 2023: Annual Growth Rates of Gross National Income and Net National Income:
| Table 1. Annual Growth Rates of Gross National Income and Net National Income | ||||||||
| Gross national income | Net national income | Per capita net national income | ||||||
| Year | Current prices | Constant prices | Current prices | Constant prices | Current prices | Constant prices | ||
| 2011-12 Series | ||||||||
| 2017-18 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 5.5 | ||
| 2018-19 (3rd RE) | 10.6 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | ||
| 2019-20 (2nd RE) | 6.3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | ||
| 2020-21 (1st RE) | -1.7 | -7.0 | -2.9 | -8.7 | -4.0 | -9.7 | ||
| 2021-22 (PE) | 19.3 | 8.5 | 19.4 | 8.5 | 18.3 | 7.5 | ||
| 2022-23 (1st AE) | 15.0 | 6.6 | 14.9 | 6.6 | 13.7 | 5.5 | ||
| Source: National Statistical Office | ||||||||
| PE : Provisional Estimates, RE: Revised Estimates AE: Advance Estimates | ||||||||
Economic Survey 2023: India sees GDP growth slowing in 2023-24:
It has been forecasted that India’s economy will grow 6% to 6.8% in the FY24, down from 7% projected for the current financial year. The government’s annual Economic Survey report said its baseline scenario for growth for 2023/24 was 6.5%, with nominal growth, which accounts for inflation, forecast at 11%. Gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.5% in the fiscal year starting April, compared with the 7% expansion estimated for the current year.
Economic Survey 2023: Average Annual Retail Inflation:
| Table 2: Average Annual Retail Inflation Based on CPI-C (per cent) (base: 2012=100) | |||||
| April-Dec | |||||
| Weight | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23* | |
| Food & beverages | 45.9 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 7.0 |
| Cereals and products | 9.7 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 9.3 |
| Oils and fats | 3.6 | 2.9 | 16.0 | 27.4 | 5.4 |
| Fruits | 2.9 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| Vegetables | 6.0 | 21.3 | 5.8 | -7.2 | 7.6 |
| Pulses and products | 2.4 | 9.9 | 16.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 |
| Housing | 10.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Fuel and light | 6.8 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 11.3 | 10.5 |
| Miscellaneous | 28.3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| Education | 4.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.2 |
| Headline Inflation | 100.0 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 6.8 |
| Core Inflation | 47.3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| Food Inflation | 39.1 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 7.0 |
Economic Survey 2023: Economy nearly recouped pandemic-related losses:
India is third-largest economy in the world in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms; 5th largest in terms of exchange rate. The economy has nearly recouped what was lost, renewed what had paused; re-energised what had slowed during the pandemic, said the Economic Survey 2023.
Economic Survey 2023: Unemployment falls to 7.2%:
The country’s unemployment rate fell from 8.3% in July-September 2019 to 7.2% in July-September 2022.
Economic Survey 2023: Capital Expenditure jumps 2.7 times in 7 yrs:
Budgeted capital expenditure rose 2.7X in the last seven years, from FY16 to FY23, re-invigorating the Capex cycle. Structural reforms such as the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code enhanced the efficiency and transparency of the economy and ensured financial discipline and better compliance.
Economic Survey 2023: Bank credit growth likely to be brisk in FY24:
According to the Economic Survey, Bank credit growth will remain brisk in the coming financial year. Benign inflation and moderate credit cost will impact bank credit. Credit growth to small businesses remarkably high at over 30.5% in January-November, 2022.
Economic Survey 2023: India’s growth to be supported by domestic demand:
India’s recovery from pandemic was relatively quick; growth, pick up in capital investment, says Economic Survey.
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