Goldman Sachs, the US-based investment bank, forecasts India’s economy to grow at a rate of 6.5% in the fiscal year 2024-25, surpassing the projected 6.2% for the current financial year. The key driver for this growth is anticipated to be increased private sector investment.
Economic Drivers in H1 2024: Consumption Spending and General Elections
Consumption Dominance: The first half of 2024 is expected to be dominated by consumption spending. This surge is linked to India’s general elections scheduled during this period. Goldman Sachs predicts that subsidies and transfer payments will play a pivotal role in driving growth during the initial months.
General Election Impact: The report suggests that subsidies and transfer payments are likely to be the primary growth drivers in the lead-up to the general elections in Q2 2024. This aligns with historical spending patterns observed during previous election cycles.
Economic Drivers in H2 2024: Resumption of Investment Growth
Post-Election Investment Boost: The second half of 2024 is forecasted to witness a resurgence in investment growth, particularly from the private sector. Following the elections, Goldman Sachs anticipates a reacceleration of investment activities, highlighting the shift from consumption-driven to investment-driven growth.
Government’s Role in Investment: While the government’s capital expenditure has been instrumental in propelling overall investment, there is an expectation that it will stimulate private investments. However, the report notes that the growth rate of government capital spending may decrease in the next fiscal year.
Sectoral Projections for 2024-25: Investment and Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment Projection: Goldman Sachs projects a substantial increase in gross fixed investment, forecasting a growth rate of 7.5% in 2024-25, compared to 6.4% in the current fiscal year. This growth is seen as a positive signal for the overall economic landscape.
Private Consumption Outlook: Contrastingly, the outlook for private consumption suggests a decline, dropping from 7.5% to 5.5%. This shift underscores the expected shift in the economic driver from consumption to investment in the coming fiscal year.
Challenges and Medium-Term Fiscal Path: Government’s Capital Expenditure
Government’s Continuing Focus: While the government is expected to maintain its focus on capital spending, the report highlights the medium-term fiscal consolidation path. This path may lead to a decrease in the growth rate of government capital expenditure in the next fiscal year.
Industrial Production and Infrastructure Spending: Although industrial production numbers indicate an uptick in infrastructure-related spending, there is a lag in other manufacturing industries following suit. This underscores the need for a balanced and comprehensive approach to economic growth.