According to the State Bank of India‘s research paper Ecowrap, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in FY22 is predicted to be in the range of 8.2 to 8.5 percent. Uncertainties abound in Q4FY22 GDP estimates, as normal quarterly data adjustments are tough to fathom, but the research produced by SBI’s Economic Research Department predicts that it will meet the 3 to 3.5 percent mark.
- On May 31, the government will disclose GDP figures for the fourth quarter of FY22. The data are tough to understand, according to SBI, and a flurry of regular quarterly revisions in FY22 on May 31st could make it a forecaster’s nightmare.
- According to the newspaper, SBI’s Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh believes that FY22 GDP estimates will be closer to 8.5 percent than Q4 GDP numbers.
- Given the robust growth in tax receipts, the disparity between GVA and GDP numbers in Q4 could be another major problem. This could result in a considerable increase in GDP, despite the fact that GVA may be much smaller.
- The Central Statistics Office forecast Q4 GDP at Rs 41.04 lakh crore and FY22 real GDP growth at Rs 147.7 lakh crore, an increase of 1.7% over pre-pandemic levels, according to the study.
- The growth rate of Q4 GDP is pegged at Rs 40 lakh crore by the SBI Nowcasting model, which is lower by Rs 1 lakh crore than the CSO early predictions.
Important Takeaways For All Competitive Exams:
- SBI’s Group Chief Economic Adviser: Soumya Kanti Ghosh