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NIPFP Forecasts India’s FY25 GDP Growth at 7.1%

The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP) predicts India’s GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25 to be 7.1%. Utilizing high-frequency models, NIPFP underscores the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts, emphasizing tax buoyancy and compression of revenue expenditure.

States’ Capex Growth

In the fiscal year 2023-24, states witness robust capital expenditure (capex) growth, attributed to substantial transfers from the central government. This highlights the effective utilization of resources at the state level, contributing to economic expansion.

Divergent Projections

While NIPFP’s forecast stands at 7.1%, other entities such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Fitch Ratings estimate a growth rate of 7%. In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), S&P Global Ratings, and Morgan Stanley project a slightly lower growth rate of 6.8% for FY25, indicating varying perspectives on India’s economic trajectory.

IMF’s Appreciation of India’s Fiscal Discipline

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commends India for maintaining fiscal discipline, particularly noteworthy in an election year. Emphasizing the significance of sound macro fundamentals, IMF’s Director for Asia and Pacific Department, Krishna Srinivasan, lauds India’s steady economic performance, projecting growth at 6.8% for 2024-25, driven by private consumption and public investment.

NIPFP Forecasts India's FY25 GDP Growth at 7.1%_4.1