India Set to Become Fastest-Growing Major Aviation Market by 2026

India is poised to become the world’s fastest-growing large aviation market by 2026, according to Airports Council International (ACI). While China remains significantly ahead in overall aviation market size, India’s growth is being fuelled by increasing demand for air travel among its vast population, where per capita air travel remains low. The rapid pace of infrastructure development, policy reforms, and growing middle-class aspirations are contributing factors. Over the next three decades, India is projected to maintain its third-largest aviation market position globally but lead in terms of growth rate.

Key Highlights

India’s Growth to Surpass China (2026)

• India’s air passenger traffic expected to grow 10.5% in 2026 vs China’s 8.9%.
• In 2027: India – 10.3%, China – 7.2%.
• India’s CAGR (2023–2027) pegged at 9.5%, higher than China’s 8.8%.

2025 Projection

• China: 12% growth
• India: 10.1%

Reasons for India’s Rapid Growth

• Low trips per capita (India: 0.1 vs China: 0.5 in 2023) indicates untapped potential.
• Rising middle class, improving aviation infrastructure, and expanding airline networks.
• Strong policy support under schemes like UDAN and Gati Shakti.

Long-Term Outlook (Till 2053)

• India’s CAGR (long-term): 5.5% – highest among large aviation markets.
• China’s long-term CAGR: 3.8%.

Other fast-growing markets

• Vietnam (4.6%), Philippines (4.5%), Saudi Arabia (4.5%), Thailand (4.3%), Qatar (4.2%), Egypt (4%), UAE (3.8%).

Per Capita Air Travel Comparison (2023),

• US: 2.1 trips
• China: 0.5 trips
• India: 0.1 trips
• ACI projects India to reach 0.4 trips per capita by 2043.

India’s Global Position by 2053

• 3rd largest aviation market globally (after China and the US), but with fastest growth rate.

ACI’s View

• India’s air travel demand is rising as the market is developing, and supply-side enhancements like new airports and improved connectivity support growth.