NITI Aayog and the Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC) made an upbeat prediction that by FY2026-27, electric two-wheelers would be completely incorporated into the Indian market. The Department of Science & Technology established the independent TIFAC in 1988 with the mission to forecast technological developments, evaluate technological trajectories, and foster innovation.
- Forecasting Electric Two-Wheeler Penetration in India was the report’s title.
- It gave significant insights into the sector’s priorities for technology development as well as the necessary industrial capacity and infrastructure.
- Even without extending demand-side incentives, the penetration of electric two-wheelers may reach about 72% in FY 2031-32 if an R&D programme is successful in increasing their range and power by 5% annually between FY 2023-24 and 2025-26 and by 10% in FY 2026-2027.
- By FY2028-29, the number of electric two-wheeler sales could surpass 220 lakh units.
About the Research conducted by NITI Ayog and Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council:
- According to the research findings, India is at a crossroads and the transition to electric mobility, particularly in the two-wheeler market, may occur sooner than expected.
- Due to the initial lack of electric vehicle adoption, a higher ratio of charging stations to electric vehicles will be needed to provide buyers trust.
- Sales could possibly top 250 lakh units if there is enough infrastructure established for charging electric two-wheelers.
- According to the Incentive Driven Scenario, which assumes that demand incentives will persist throughout but with only a 2% annual reduction in battery cost and no improvement in range or performance, the sale of electric two-wheelers will reach 54.91 lakh units in FY 2031, with a market penetration of 21.86%.
Three key aspects that affect the market penetration of electric two-wheelers have been used to build the future scenarios. Demand incentives, battery cost, and vehicle performance in terms of range and power are these factors.