By 2030, Mumbai, Delhi & 6 Other Cities to See Twofold Rise in Heatwaves

India is on the brink of a major climate crisis, with a new study revealing that by 2030, major cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, and five others are expected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days. Conducted by IPE Global and Esri India, the study also highlights a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, pointing to a future where the country becomes both hotter and wetter. Released during the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, the findings raise urgent concerns about the growing vulnerability of Indian urban centres to climate extremes, underscoring the need for immediate risk mitigation and adaptive planning.

Why in News?

A new joint study by IPE Global and Esri India, titled ‘Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate’, has revealed that by 2030, India’s major cities—including Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Surat, Hyderabad, Patna, Bhubaneswar, and Thane—are likely to experience a two-fold increase in heatwave days. The study was released on June 10, 2025, during the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, ahead of the 62nd UNFCCC session in Bonn, Germany.

Key Highlights of the Study

• Heatwave Days Doubling: By 2030, cities like Mumbai, Delhi, and Chennai will witness twice as many heatwave days.
• Extreme Rainfall Surge: 43% increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected across India.
• Shift in Monsoon Patterns: A clear extension of summer-like conditions during the monsoon season is noted.
• Regional Vulnerability: Over 80% districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, and others face a double impact—heat stress + erratic rainfall.

Scientific Findings and Statistics

• 15x rise in extreme heat days from 1993–2024; 19x in just the last decade.
• 72% of tier-I and tier-II cities to experience more climate extremes (storms, surges, lightning).
• 69% of coastal districts to face heat-stress during monsoons by 2030, rising to 79% by 2040.

Expert Views

• Abinash Mohanty, IPE Global: Climate change has made India hotter and wetter; El Niño and La Niña events are intensifying these extremes.
• Agendra Kumar, Esri India: Microclimatic shifts due to land-use change, deforestation, mangrove loss are driving local climate risks.

Recommendations by the Study

• Establish a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO): To monitor chronic and acute risks using GIS, Earth Observation & climate models.
• Adopt hyper-granular risk assessments: For agriculture, urban planning, and disaster readiness.
• Introduce risk financing instruments: To mitigate economic impacts.
• Appoint Heat-Risk Champions: In each district’s disaster management body.

Background and Context

• The study aligns with growing international concern over climate adaptation and urban resilience.
• It supports the UN Secretary-General’s Call to Action on Extreme Heat and reflects broader concerns raised in the Global South about sustainable development and climate adaptation.