Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees India’s economic growth slowing next year, citing a hit to consumer demand from higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from pandemic reopening, while lowering its growth forecast. Gross domestic product (GDP) may expand by 5.9% in calendar year 2023 from an estimated 6.9% this year.
What Has Been Said:
“Growth will likely be a tale of two halves, with a slower first half as the reopening boost fades, and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand. In the second half, growth is likely to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, drag from net exports diminishes, and investment cycle picks up”.
What About The External Sector:
India’s export growth fell sharply in October. It contracted 16.7% annually from 4.8% growth. September. This indicates a decrease in global demand.
India’s exports saw a contraction for the first time in the post-pandemic phase and the last time exports contracted was back in February 2021. “We expect weakening exports to have important implications for India’s growth. The consistent slowdown across months in core import growth and weak industrial output data suggest that domestic growth momentum peaked in Q2”.
About The Investment:
“India’s investment cycle is linked closely to the global growth and export cycles, which is expected to be an additional source of domestic headwind. Goldman sees a pickup in investment cycle toward the second-half of 2023 aiding India’s growth rebound.
About The Inflation:
Upside risks to inflation means the Reserve Bank of India will likely raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in December and another 35 basis points in February, to hit a terminal rate of 6.75%, Goldman economists wrote. The benchmark rate stands at 5.9% now.
Annual headline CPI inflation rose to 7.5% in September from below 7.0% in July. Wholesale price inflation, however, has declined for four straight months, from a peak of 16.6% in May to 10.7% in September.
What The Others Say:
Moody’s also lowered growth forecast for 2023 to 4.8% from 5.2% estimated earlier. Following the deceleration, the agency expects India’s economic growth to recover to 6.4% in 2024. The ratings agency, however, said that India’s underlying growth dynamics are fundamentally strong, boosted by a rebound in services activity.
On the other hand, the World Bank in October cut its 2022-23 (FY23) real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India to 6.5%, from an earlier estimate of 7.5%, while warning that spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and global monetary tightening will weigh on the economic outlook.