India's GDP growth accelerates to 7.8% in April-June quarter

In a significant economic development, India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) demonstrated robust growth, surging to 7.8% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023-2024, compared to a 6.1% growth rate recorded in the preceding January-March quarter of the fiscal year 2022-23. This acceleration is indicative of a positive economic trajectory and holds great implications for the nation’s financial landscape.

Year-on-Year Comparison

Looking back at the same quarter in the previous year, the GDP growth rate stood at a remarkable 13.1%. This highlights both the progress and the challenges that the Indian economy has faced over the past year.

Strong Contributors to Q1FY24 Growth

The impressive Q1FY24 economic growth can be attributed primarily to the exceptional performance of the services sector, which has displayed remarkable resilience and adaptability. Additionally, a surge in capital expenditure has contributed significantly to this growth trajectory.

Meeting Expectations

The GDP growth rate of 7.8% aligns closely with the projections made by financial experts, who had estimated a growth rate of 7.7% for the fourth quarter. However, there is anticipation in the economic community that India’s Q1 GDP may surpass the 8% forecast set by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.

RBI’s Projections

RBI’s MPC had earlier projected India’s real GDP growth for the entire fiscal year 2023-24 at 6.5%, with the Q1 growth rate estimated at 8%. The actual Q1 figures suggest that the economy is on a path that could potentially outperform these expectations, which is an encouraging sign for policymakers and investors alike.

Reflecting on the Previous Fiscal Year

In the fiscal year 2022-23, India’s economy managed to surpass expectations by achieving a growth rate of 7.2%, exceeding the central bank’s estimate of 7%. Nonetheless, it’s important to note that this pace of growth was slower compared to the remarkable 9.1% recorded in the preceding fiscal year (2021-22). This underscores the dynamic nature of the Indian economy and its resilience in the face of various challenges.

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