The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently revised India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.1%, up from the previous prediction of 5.9%. This upward revision is attributed to stronger domestic investments and reflects the momentum from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 (FY23). The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook also raises the baseline forecast for world growth to 3% in the year 2023, amid reduced chances of a US recession and falling inflation.
India’s GDP Growth Forecast Upgraded:
- IMF raises India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY23) to 6.1% from the previous projection of 5.9%.
- The upward revision is attributed to stronger domestic investments, contributing to the growth momentum observed in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Positive Outlook for India’s Economy:
- The calendar year 2023 growth projection for India stands at 6.6%, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s economic performance.
- This upward revision aligns with the growth forecasts presented by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which have pegged GDP growth at 6.5% for FY24.
- Multilateral agencies like the Asian Development Bank and Fitch have also raised their growth forecasts for India, indicating confidence in the country’s economic recovery.
Global Economic Recovery:
- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook predicts a global GDP growth of 3% in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 2.8%.
- The resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and decisive actions taken by authorities to address banking turmoil have reduced immediate risks to the global financial sector.
- The global economy continues to recover gradually from the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Risks and Concerns:
- While progress is evident, the IMF notes continued risks to global financial stability.
- Concerns include higher interest rates, a slower-than-expected recovery in China, debt distress in emerging economies, and threats to trade from geo-economic fragmentation.
- Global inflation is projected to decline from 8.7% last year to 6.8% this year, but it remains relatively high, affecting household purchasing power and constraining economic activity.
About IMF, Key points:
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international financial institution established in 1944 to promote global economic stability and cooperation.
- Its main goal is to ensure the stability of the international monetary system and facilitate international trade.
- The IMF provides financial assistance and policy advice to member countries facing economic difficulties or balance of payments problems.
- It conducts economic surveillance and analysis to monitor global economic trends and potential risks.
- The IMF also offers technical assistance and training to member countries to strengthen their economic and financial capabilities.
- It consists of 190 member countries, each of which contributes funds to the IMF based on its economic size and needs.
- The IMF’s decision-making power is determined by the size of a country’s financial contribution, with larger economies having more influence.
- The IMF’s headquarters is located in Washington, D.C.
- Some of the key publications released by the IMF include:
World Economic Outlook (WEO): This report is published twice a year and provides comprehensive economic analysis, growth projections, and macroeconomic forecasts for both individual countries and the global economy.
Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR): The GFSR assesses global financial markets and potential risks to financial stability, offering insights into financial sector developments and vulnerabilities.