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A ‘Healthy normal’ Monsoon forecasts by Skymet

Skymet which is a private weather forecast company and its weather report states:

The report states:

– This year, the monsoon is likely  to be 103% of the long period average (LPA). The LPA is the average of all India monsoon consisting of rainfall of 88 cm and is 50-year mean.

– The odds of an El Nino, characterised by a heating of the equatorial central Pacific over half a degree, are low this year.Presently, the Pacific is in a La Nina mode.

– The North India plains along with a few parts of northeast India are at risk of being rain deficient through the season.

– The Indian Ocean Dipole, characterised by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean. It is expected to be slightly on the negative. Usually a positive dipole aids the monsoon.

– During the season in India, the monsoon in 2019 and 2020 was only the third time in a century of back-to-back years of above normal rainfall.

What is the Impact?

– As per the studies a positive IOD year sees more than normal rainfall over central India.

– A negative IOD complements El NiNo leading to severe drought.

– Also, positive IOD results in more than usual in Arabian Sea.

– In Bay of Bengal, negative IOD results in stronger than usual cyclogenesis. During this time, cyclogenesis in Arabian Sea is suppressed.

Important takeaways for all competitive exams

What is IOD?

It is Indian Ocean Dipole, an atmosphere-ocean coupled phenomenon in the tropical Indian Ocean which is characterised by a difference in sea-surface temperatures.

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