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Global Economic Resilience Amid Dark Outlook: World Bank Report

The World Bank reveals a surprising resilience in the global economy, though shadows loom over the future, anticipating a third consecutive year of slowdown in 2024. After a robust rebound to 6.2% in 2021, global growth waned to 3.0% in 2022 and further to 2.6% in 2023. Projections indicate a continued deceleration to 2.4% in 2024 before a modest recovery to 2.7% in 2025, notably below the 3.1% average of the 2010s.

Key Projections by the World Bank

  • World Growth: Estimated at 2.6% (2023), 2.4% (2024), and 2.7% (2025).
  • Country Highlights:
    • US: 2.5% (2023), 1.6% (2024), 1.7% (2025).
    • China: 5.2% (2023), 4.5% (2024), 4.3% (2025).
    • India: Anticipated to maintain the fastest growth, ascending from 6.3% (2023-24) to 6.5% (2025-26).

Despite India’s optimistic trajectory, the World Bank’s forecast for 2023-24 is a full percentage point lower than the government’s estimate, attributing it to a slight deceleration in investment and a tapering off of private consumption growth. The report underscores India’s post-pandemic recovery, emphasizing maintained robustness in investment, though private consumption is expected to ease due to diminishing pent-up demand and inflation constraints.

Important Questions Related to Exams

  1. What is the projected global economic growth rate for 2024 according to the World Bank?
  2. Identify two factors contributing to India’s anticipated economic growth, as mentioned in the report.
  3. Which major economies are expected to experience a decline in growth rates in 2024, according to the World Bank’s forecasts?
  4. Explain the discrepancy between the World Bank’s GDP growth estimate for India in 2023-24 and the statistic ministry’s first advance estimate released recently.

Please provide your answers in the comment section!!


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