Rating Agency Morgan Stanely has projected India’s GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 (FY23) at 7.9%. This is 50 bps less than its earlier projection due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Furthermore, Stanley raised the country’s retail inflation estimate to 6%, meanwhile, current account deficits are seen to widen by 3% of GDP.
India is affected through three key channels — higher prices for oil and other commodities; trade, and tighter financial conditions, influencing business/investment sentiment. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent – the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI – and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events.