Muslim Population in India: History, Demographic Trends, and Regional Insights

Why in News?

The upcoming 2025 Indian Census is expected to provide updated figures on India’s religious demographics, particularly focusing on the Muslim population, which remains a critical aspect of the country’s pluralistic social fabric. A significant global study by the Pew Research Center, titled “The Future of World Religions,” has projected that Islam will become the most followed religion in the world by 2050. Against this backdrop, understanding the historical context and current trends of the Muslim population in India becomes essential.

Global Muslim Population Overview

Islam, the religion followed by over 2 billion people worldwide, is currently the second-largest religion globally, after Christianity. However, demographic trends suggest that Muslims may surpass Christians by 2050, making Islam the most practiced religion globally.

Most of the world’s Muslims reside in North and Central Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. While many nations like Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran have more than 90% Muslim populations, the largest absolute Muslim population resides in Indonesia, home to more than 242 million Muslims, accounting for 11.7% of the global Muslim population.

Top 3 Countries by Muslim Population (2021)

1. Indonesia – 242.7 million
2. Pakistan – 240.76 million
3. India – 200 million

India ranks third globally despite being a secular democracy with a Hindu-majority population.

Historical Roots of Islam in India

Islam has deep and complex roots in the Indian subcontinent. It was first introduced in 712 CE with the Arab invasion of Sindh, led by Muhammad bin Qasim. However, Muslim communities had already started emerging in South India, particularly in Kerala, due to early trade relations with West Asian merchants.

Key Historical Milestones:

• Malik Dinar, an Arab missionary, is credited with establishing several of India’s earliest mosques in Kerala and coastal Karnataka.
• The Cheraman Juma Mosque in Methala, Kerala, built in the 7th century, is regarded as India’s first mosque.
• In North India, Islam gained a more dominant presence during the Delhi Sultanate and later, the Mughal Empire, particularly from the 16th century onward.

Demographic Profile of Muslims in India

Current Estimates:

As of 2021, India had approximately 200 million Muslims, making it the country with the largest Muslim-minority population in the world. This represents about 10.9% of the global Muslim population.

According to government estimates from 2023, India’s Muslim population lies between 19.75 to 20 crore, making up roughly 14.22% to 14.28% of India’s total population of 138.8 to 140 crore.

Trends in Muslim Population Growth

India’s Muslim population has steadily increased since independence. While in 1941, the population was around 42 million, it fell to 35 million by 1951 due to Partition-related migration. Since then, there has been continuous growth:

Between 1991 and 2001, the Muslim population grew by 29.5%, while the Hindu population grew by 19.9% during the same period.

Fertility Rates and Growth:

Recent studies have shown that the Muslim fertility rate, though declining, remains the highest among all religious communities in India. Between 2019 and 2021, the Muslim fertility rate was 2.36%, contributing significantly to population growth.

Regional Distribution of Muslims in India

Muslims are not evenly distributed across India. Their concentration is highest in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar, which together host nearly 47% of the country’s total Muslim population.

States with Highest Muslim Populations:

States with Lowest Muslim Populations:

In these states, Muslims form a negligible minority.

Social Composition and Diversity

Though united by faith, Indian Muslims are socially diverse. There are caste-like divisions, with the Ashrafs (of supposed Arab or Persian descent) considered socially superior to Ajlafs (local converts from Hinduism) and Arzals (those from lower castes).

This diversity impacts access to education, employment, and social mobility within the community. Despite a large population, Indian Muslims are underrepresented in government jobs, politics, and higher education.

Future Projections and Significance

India’s next census in 2025 will be a crucial benchmark for measuring the religious demographic shift, especially as the fertility rates and literacy levels evolve. According to projections, India will continue to have the third-largest Muslim population in the world, but its percentage growth is expected to stabilize due to declining fertility trends.

The role of Muslims in India’s social, economic, and cultural landscape remains vital, and understanding this demographic is essential for inclusive policy-making, minority welfare, and national integration.