RBI’s Net Short Position in Forward Market Swells to $77.5 Billion: Analyzing the Forex Trends

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reported a significant rise in its net short position in the forward book, which expanded to $77.5 billion by the end of January 2025, up from $67.9 billion in December 2024. This increase reflects forex market interventions amid rupee depreciation and global trade uncertainties. The data was released in RBI’s March 2025 monthly bulletin.

RBI’s Net Short Position in Forward Market: An Overview

The RBI’s intervention in the foreign exchange market influences rupee stability, liquidity conditions, and forex reserves. A net short position indicates that the central bank has committed to selling more foreign currency than it has purchased in the forward market.

• January 2025 Net Short Position: $77.5 billion (up from $67.9 billion in December 2024).
• January 2024 Net Position: A net forward purchase of $9.974 billion.
• Spot Market Intervention: Net sale of $11.1 billion in January 2025, following a $15.1 billion net sale in December 2024.
• Total Forex Transactions in January 2025:

1. Purchases: $49.1 billion
2. Sales: $60.2 billion

This reflects heightened forex activity due to global economic fluctuations and India’s trade balance adjustments.

Reasons Behind the Increasing Net Short Position

Several factors contributed to RBI’s decision to increase its net short position in the forward market:

1. Depreciation of the Rupee

• The rupee weakened by 1.16% in January 2025, prompting RBI’s intervention to stabilize its value.
• Dealers noted that rupee depreciation before the US political transition on January 20 impacted forex market dynamics.

2. Foreign Equity Outflows

• There were large outflows from the Indian equity market in January 2025, particularly in the first half.
• This led the RBI to intervene in the forex market to manage currency volatility.

3. Impact of US Economic Policies

• As of March 17, 2025, the US dollar lost all gains made since mid-November 2024 due to uncertainties in US trade policies and economic growth.
• This resulted in fluctuations in the USD-INR exchange rate, impacting India’s forex reserves.

4. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Moderation

• India’s REER (which indicates currency valuation against a basket of global currencies) declined:

1. February 2025: 102.37 (down from 104.84 in January 2025)
2. November 2024 Peak: 108.14, before moderating to 107.20 in December 2024.

• A fall in REER suggests that the rupee has become relatively undervalued, impacting trade competitiveness.

RBI’s Forex Market Activity: Spot and Forward Market Trends

1. Spot Market Intervention

The spot forex market transactions in January 2025 included:

• Purchases: $49.1 billion
• Sales: $60.2 billion
• Net Sales: $11.1 billion (after a $15.1 billion net sale in December 2024)

2. Forward Market Activity

• Net Short Position Growth: $77.5 billion (January 2025) vs. $67.9 billion (December 2024)
• Compared to January 2024, the RBI was in a net forward purchase position of $9.974 billion.

3. RBI’s Position in Current Financial Year (April 2024–March 2025)

• H1 (April–September 2024): RBI was a net buyer of dollars, purchasing $8.52 billion.
• Up to November 2024: RBI was a net seller of $36 billion in forex markets.

Impact on the Indian Economy

1. Rupee Stability

• The rupee settled at 86.44 per dollar on March 17, 2025, up from 86.57 per dollar in the previous session.
• The dollar index softened due to US economic concerns, aiding rupee appreciation.

2. Inflation and Trade Impact

• A weaker rupee raises import costs, affecting inflation and trade balance.
• The narrowing inflation differential with trading partners also influences the REER decline.

3. Capital Market Effects

• RBI’s forex market interventions impact liquidity conditions in the financial system.
• Higher foreign outflows in January affected stock market stability, requiring forex reserves management.

Summary of the News