A potential cyclone named ‘Fengal,’ suggested by Saudi Arabia, is forming in the Bay of Bengal, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The system, originating as a cyclonic circulation on November 21 near the South Andaman Sea, is likely to evolve into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) by November 23 and intensify into a depression by November 24. This comes on the heels of Cyclone Dana, which severely impacted Odisha in October 2024.
Cyclone Fengal Development Path
Formation and Intensification
A cyclonic circulation developed over the South Andaman Sea on November 21. It is expected to form an LPA by November 23 and intensify into a depression by November 24. By November 25, it may further strengthen into a deep depression or a cyclonic storm, with varying predictions on its peak intensity.
Movement and Landfall Projections
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- IMD GFS: Indicates a depression evolving into a cyclonic storm and weakening before reaching Tamil Nadu by November 27.
- NCEP GFS: Projects a severe cyclonic storm crossing Tamil Nadu as a weakening system by November 27.
- ECMWF: Suggests a less intense scenario, with the system crossing Tamil Nadu as a depression by November 26.
Rainfall and Wind Forecast
November 21–24: Light to moderate rainfall in Andaman–Nicobar Islands, with isolated heavy rain in Nicobar.
November 25–27: Heavy to very heavy rainfall in southern Tamil Nadu. Isolated heavy rainfall likely in Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. Gusty winds are expected along affected areas.
Historical Context and Current Implications
Cyclone Fengal follows Cyclone Dana, which hit Odisha on October 25, causing widespread damage. Unlike Dana, Fengal is predicted to move towards the northern coast of Sri Lanka or southern Tamil Nadu, marking a shift in typical Bay of Bengal cyclone trajectories, which often target Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, and Odisha in November.
Summery of the news
| Key Point | Details |
|---|---|
| Why in News? | A potential cyclone named Fengal is forming in the Bay of Bengal, expected to become a depression by November 24 and possibly intensify into a cyclonic storm by November 25. |
| Formation Date | Cyclonic circulation observed on November 21; Low Pressure Area likely by November 23; depression by November 24. |
| Projected Path | Expected to move west-northwest towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka, with landfall likely around November 26–27, weakening before reaching the coast. |
| Rainfall Forecast | Heavy to very heavy rainfall in southern Tamil Nadu (Nov 25–27); moderate rains in Kerala, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. |
| Naming Authority | Name ‘Fengal’ suggested by Saudi Arabia as part of a naming sequence by 13 countries. |
| Static Cyclone Facts | Cyclones in the Indian Ocean are named sequentially by countries in the region, including India, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, and others. |
| IMD Model Predictions | GFS: Cyclonic storm, weakening before Tamil Nadu landfall. ECMWF: Depression stage only. NCEP GFS: Severe cyclonic storm, weakening near Tamil Nadu. |
| Cyclone Dana (Context) | Cyclone Dana, preceding Fengal, made landfall in Odisha on October 25, 2024, causing severe winds and rainfall. |
| Tamil Nadu (Static Info) | CM: M.K. Stalin; Capital: Chennai. |
| Andaman Sea (Location Info) | Part of the northeastern Indian Ocean, bordering the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Myanmar, a frequent origin area for cyclonic circulations. |
| Rainfall Alert Regions | Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry, Karaikal, Mahe, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. |
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